Implied Probability Is the Only Forecast You Can Audit

Markets are full of predictions that cannot be checked until after the fact. Implied probability is different. It is already ...
Risk

Backtesting of a probability of default model in the point-in-time–through-the-cycle context

This paper presents a backtesting framework for a probability of default (PD) model, assuming that the latter is calibrated to both point-in-time (PIT) and through-the-cycle (TTC) levels. We claim ...
Risk

The art of probability-of-default curve calibration

"PD curve calibration" refers to the transformation of a set of rating grade level probabilities of default (PDs) to another average PD level that is determined by a change of the underlying portfolio ...
TMCnet

Stop AI from Guessing: Appier Enables Agents to Assess Confidence Before Acting

As an AI-native Agentic AI-as-a-Service (AaaS) company, Appier today announced its latest research paper, On Calibration of ...